The Two-Line Pass 2008-09 NHL season preview: The Edmonton Oilers
We’re now something like six days out from the start of the NHL season, which means I have to kick these season previews into overdrive because I’m a lazy idiot. This is mainly for two reasons: 1) I am lazy and there’s no way I’ll do one of these every day, and 2) These started early enough that if I just stop doing them entirely you’ll have forgotten by October anyway. Oh and I guess also to show off my near-infinite knowledge of the National Hockey League. I’ll be previewing the teams in reverse order of finish in the 2007-08 season. Please note, though, that this is the opinion of one man, however smart and handsome he may be.
Edmonton Oilers, you’re on the clock.
Note: In the interest of full disclosure, I am and have always been a Flames fan.
Here, then, is the most improved team in the NHL. Maybe not points-wise, but certainly personnel-wise.
Edmonton’s power play was just awful last year (16.6 percent) and as a consequence, it often relied upon its team’s incredible abilities to get to and then win the shootout over the last several years. It’s an often-repeated stat, but were it not for the shootout/overtime loss loser point, the team wouldn’t have even made the playoffs in 2005-06 when it went to the Stanley Cup Final.
More after the jump.
In fact, the Oilers were heavily reliant upon their shootout success last season as well. The Oilers went 19-6 in games that last longer than 60 minutes last season, and 15-4 of that was in the shootout. That’s an extra 15 points (of the team’s 88) from winning the shootout. Had it not been for that success, the Oilers would have been among the worst two or three teams in the league (I’m not sure whether or not that would have been a good thing).
However, one suspects that might not be the case this year. The Oilers’ power play will be greatly improved thanks to the presence of its two big offseason pickups, forward Erik Cole (acquired from Carolina for the ghost of Joni Pitkanen’s potential) and defenseman Lubomir Visnovsky (from LA for penalty-takin’ Matt Greene and Jarret Stoll, who will not be missed). Add in that they’ll see the return of a healthy Shawn Horcoff, who netted 50 points in 53 games, and Sheldon Souray, 10 in 26, the power play, and indeed the entire offense, will greatly improve. For some reason, too, a lot of people seem to think this is the year that Ales Hemsky breaks out at long last.
Also, I really liked the Raffi Torres-for-Gilbert Brule deal from an Edmonton perspective.
The defense will too, actually. The D corps is a decent mix of young kids and good-enough veterans that they won’t struggle too mightily until injuries crop up as they inevitably do. Guys like the dependable but vastly overpaid Tom Gilbert and the contract-year combo Ladislav Smid and Denis Grebeshkov will continue to improve in hopes of landing a gig that means they’ll never have to ride a bus for 12 hours to play hockey in Virginia again. With Visnovsky and Souray leading the way, it also takes the weight of offensive reponsibilities off the kids’ shoulders a bit, which never hurts. Put it this way, the cap rose about $6 million this season, and the Oilers invested $5.2 million of that in its defense, while trimming offensive payroll by less than $800,000 or so. That’s just smart management.
The goaltending situation seems iffy on the surface — Mathieu Garon and Dwayne Roloson, who’s got to be 58 by now? — but consider this: Garon has posted almost identical seasons the last two years on two pretty ugly teams. In LA two years ago, he was 2.66/.907. In Edmonton last year, 2.66/.913. Not great numbers, but not bad either. It wins you more games than it loses you, certainly with this offense, and you know what you’re getting. Garon’s steady enough, and with Roloson a year older, slower and worse, he deserves more than the 47 appearances he had last year. He’s also playing for a contract.
The Hero: You can make a credible argument a number of ways, but I have to go with Ales Hemsky. He’s got all the talent in the world and has a penchant for scoring big, exciting goals. He’s been, y’know, perfectly alright the last few years, playing just shy of a point a game. But he’s in the midst of the longest non-Gretzky contract in the team’s history and at some point he has to start producing better than he has. If he does, the Oil is a threat to win the Northwest. If he doesn’t, they’ll have to settle for second or worse. A lot hinges on Hemsky’s ability to power the top line.
The Darkhorse: Sheldon Souray. Somewhat similar to Hemsky, most power play success the Oil has is going to run right through Souray, who was an extra-man monster in his time with Montreal. Word is he’s perfectly healthy again, which is good news for the Oilers. Visnovsky is a very nice compliment to Souray’s skills, but they play a similar game and Souray’s better at it.
The New Guy: Erik Cole. Yes indeedy, if he can stay healthy, Erik Cole is just what this offense needed. If he can’t, well, he’s the one in a contract year. The Oilers will be glad for what he can give them, and if he gives them nothing, the cost was minimal and the risk was low.
The Big Question: How those kids doing? Andrew Cogliano looked pretty decent last year, but he’ll need to shoot more if he wants to be effective, and Sam Gagner was also impressive. Both were rookies. If they can improve upon those seasons in their sophomore campaigns (and all signs point to them doing just that), then they’ll provide the Oilers with a secondary scoring punch that the team sorely lacked last year.
Offseason gains:
- Acquired C Ryan Potulny from Philadelphia
- Acquired D Lubomir Visnovsky from Los Angeles
- Acquired C Gilbert Brule from Columbus
- Acquired LW Erik Cole from Carolina
- D Jason Strudwick
- RW Carl Corazzini
Offseason losses:
- D Danny Syrvet (Potulny deal)
- D Matt Greene and C Jarret Stoll (Visnovsky deal)
- D Joni Pitkanen (Cole deal)
- LW Raffi Torres (Brule deal)
- LW Troy Brodie (to Anaheim)
- C Marty Reasoner (to Atlanta)
- LW Curtis Glencross (to Calgary)
- D TJ Kemp (to Pittsburgh)
Apropos-of-nothing TLP predicted finish: Second in the division, fourth in the West, ninth in the league
